Article about the recent moves on the gas market. Points made:
- Gas prices have skyrocketed to a 5 (or more)-year maximum. In Europe, but there’s a rise everywhere else, too.
- This is the result of many factors: rising demand in Asia, overall price increase of the energy complex, relatively low storage levels in Europe.
- The outlook is ambiguous as always. A lot of premium has been built up in these price levels, however all depends on the upcoming winter as well as on the volatile commodity market.
The full article is only available in Hungarian yet. Please switch languages to read:
This article sets out three main points:
- The gas prices have significantly jumped over the past two months on the wholesale markets, reaching multi-year-long highs
- The Hungarian Gas Exchange (called CEEGEX) has matured, becoming a reliable and transparent price reference for gas supply contracts in Hungary
- In light of the above, it might be worth for customers to sign up for a floating, exchange-based spot price reference instead of going with a high fix price contract.
The full article is only available in Hungarian, please switch languages to read:
This article is only available in Hungarian (maybe worth to take a look at the graphs there though). For switching languages, please click here:
In this post we go around the politically charged topic of regulated end-user gas tariffs in Hungary, looking at the topic from three angles.
1) We attempt to shed some light on the real market price situation, coming to a conclusion that an open, competitive market pricing is a better option.
2) However, as energy poverty is a large problem in the country, some subsidies needs to be provided to the poor, so much so that we argue that for the ones in dire need, some quantity of gas free of charge could be a good idea, because it could drive people away from dirty fuels as well as serve as a good vehicle to reach out for these people with energy efficiency programs.
3) The strategic storage is financed solely by the business customers in Hungary, adding to their gas bill a total of EUR 55 million per year. This is hurting competitiveness. And we think that we could live without this storage as the risk of such a crisis is getting lowered with imminent EU regulation on the issue, less consumption, and more interconnectivity in the region. Hungary should scrap its strategic storage for good.
The full article is available in Hungarian. Please switch languages for access:
The article is only available in Hungarian. To switch languages, please click here:
How much does a new power plant cost? And how much will the power cost generated by it? There is much talk about the rise of renewables (by getting cheaper while nuclear getting more expensive) over the last decade, but what do the numbers show to us? We did the maths to shed some light on the real costs of both the renewable and conventional power plants.
(title: Total Cost of Energy of Various Power Plants, EUR/MWh)
The article points out the following:
- The planned Nord Stream 2 (NS2) pipeline would be a redundant gas transmission infrastructure for Europe.
- The Russians are presumably having political motivation behind, Central-Eastern Europe (CEE) are set to lose out by reduction of the alternative sourcing possibilities vis-à-vis Russian gas because of the elimination of the Ukrainian transit route.
- Gazprom is lining up considerable energy, funds and international support beside NS2. Adjacent pipline capacities from Germany down to Slovakia have beened reserved for 20 years at immense cost, the pipes are being built.
- The stakes are high, CEE, thus Hungary needs to have a Plan B.
We further argue that
- EU Commission should obtain the requested mandate to negotiate the case with the Russian side, with the strong instruction that Nord Stream 2 shall only be commissioned in case of the cessation of Gazprom’s Russian gas export monopoly status. This could prevent the elimination of the transit route through Ukraine
- In case Nord Stream 2 is likely to be built in its current form and regulatory context, CEE (and Hungary) needs to reach out for and start developing the alternatives: Croatian LNG and adjacent pipe development, pipeline development from the direction of Romanian production (BRUA corridor), Polish-Slovakian interconnector. It’s important to point out that some of these investments (e.g. the LNG terminal) could be forgone in case of the continuation of Ukrainian transit flows, but NS2 poses too large of a risk. Especially for Hungary, where the extended long term contract is to expire at the end of 2019, the planned date for NS2.
The whole article is only available in Hungarian yet. To switch languages, click here:
available only in Hungarian. Please switch languages
The article is only published in Hungarian yet. (more…)
The article is only published in Hungarian yet.